MacKay Fine Homes – Arizona Real Estate

The tides are turning, once again. In the past week, even those who I speak with that have been most pessimistic about our market have expressed optimism for the Phoenix market in the near future.

I have mentioned many times before when in December of 2007 and early 2008 we would hold our breath, while reviewing the absorption rate in our market, hoping to see us inch over the 5% mark.

Even Paradise Valley’s absorption is more than double that rate today, and Glendale is at a whopping 42%. More than half of the major cities in the Phoenix Metro area are experience absorption at greater than 1/3 of their inventory.

The chart below paints a very interesting picture of our market. As we know, a balanced market is considered 5.5 months of inventory, with anything below being a seller’s market, and anything above being a buyer’s market. Looking at the absorption rate and months of supply in tandem, it’s easy to see why we have finally ceased defying the law of supply and demand and have been seeing prices gradually increasing over the past few weeks. Absorption is incredibly high, and supply is incredibly low.

Listings Pending Sale are up this week, which is an unusual trend for the season at 11,441 That is an increase of 323 pending sales compared to last week. Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 7,808 properties.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 15,340 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS. That is a decrease of 63 listings over last week, making last week the only blip on the radar for an exception to 10 straight months of week over week consecutive decreases in inventory.
• There are 19,571 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.

It has finally happened! Pricing has finally begun a gradual increase! The median sales price is up 7.4% in the past seven weeks!
It would be difficult to believe that the market could continue to defy the law of supply and demand, with inventory decreasing and pricing not increasing, for too much longer.
Reviewing the Cromford Report data, which is full of good news today, across the entire metro area, sales for the month of September were up 17% over September of 2010. Perhaps even more staggering is that inventory is down 50% from September of 2010. We have chewed the inventory in half in just one year. Pending sales are up 12% over this time period last year, and the listing success rate is up 60% over last year. Oddly, we are still will not hearing any of this good news from the media.
Trustee sales and foreclosure inventory have slowed dramatically, which is contributing to the pricing increase. There were 44% fewer trustee sales in September of 2011, when compared to 2010. Additionally, the number of homes actually reverting to the bank, rather than being sold to a third party decreased by 61%. The total number that did revert to the bank was 1280 (single family), which is the lowest total since November of 2007. Notices of foreclosure were down 39% from September 2010.
Seasonally, this is the time of year when the market slows, so it will be interesting to observe the market behavior over the next 14 weeks.
Listings Pending Sale are declining, but still strong with a total of 11,118. That is a decrease of 429 pending sales compared to last week. Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 7,614 properties.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
• There are 15,403 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS. That is an increase of 148 listings over last week, which ends our ten month streak of weekly consecutive decrease.
• There are 19,645 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.

Gloria MacKay, ABR, e-PRO, GRI, CDPE, CNE, CLHMS, REALTOR®
CDPE Certified Distressed Property Expert
HAFA Certified Specialist
Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Million Dollar Guild
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
602-315-2402 mobile
480-223-1266 e-fax
gloria@mackayfinehomes.com
www.mackayfinehomes.com
FORECLOSURE RESOURCE SITE: WWW.MACKAYSCOTTSDALEPROPERTIES.COM

It’s been over two months since we’ve taken a look at months of supply of inventory by city. I was curious about the inventory, partly because we have arrived at late September, when we typically experience a seasonal slowing in the market producing a swell in the inventory, and partly because pricing for short sales and equity sales is continuing on a slight decline (foreclosure pricing is increasing).
Reviewing the data on the chart below, I was surprised to see how remarkably low inventory still is in most valley cities. We are experiencing the typical slowing in pending sales, but we are also experiencing a decrease in new inventory coming onto the market.
As I have mentioned before, a balanced market is considered to be a 5.5 month supply of inventory. Anything above 5.5 is a buyer’s market and anything below is a seller’s market.
For the past year we’ve observed that the cities with the least amount of distress, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, and Paradise Valley, were still in a buyer’s market. Not today! Scottsdale has officially claimed the “seller’s market” title, and Fountain Hills is pretty much considered balanced. Paradise Valley is still a buyer’s market with a 9.1 month supply, so there is still one place in Maricopa County where a buyer can make a low ball offer!
City Months of Inventory
Anthem 4.2
Cave Creek 3.9
Chandler 3.1
Fountain Hills 5.8
Gilbert 2.9
Glendale 2.4
Mesa 2.8
Paradise Valley 9.1
Peoria 3.0
Phoenix 2.7
Scottsdale 4.9
Surprise 2.9
Tempe 2.9
Listings Pending Sale are still strong with a total of 11,547. That is a decrease of 634 pending sales compared to two weeks ago. Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 7,718 properties. That’s a total of nearly 20,000 properties with offers in place.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
• There are 15,255 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS. That is a decrease of 1300 listings over the past two weeks. This represents the twenty-seventh consecutive week of decrease.
• There are 19,463 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.

Gloria MacKay, ABR, e-PRO, GRI, CDPE, CNE, CLHMS, REALTOR®
CDPE Certified Distressed Property Expert
HAFA Certified Specialist
Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Million Dollar Guild
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
602-315-2402 mobile
480-223-1266 e-fax
gloria@mackayfinehomes.com
www.mackayfinehomes.com
FORECLOSURE RESOURCE SITE: WWW.MACKAYSCOTTSDALEPROPERTIES.COM

For nine months, inventory has been declining and currently sits at a level not significantly higher than the boom year of 2005, and yet prices are decreasing. It™s understood that for as long as there remains a significant level of distress, our market will likely continue to be a renegade, defying those laws.  We know that foreclosures have been rapidly slowing, but we also know that short sales have been increasing.    We know that our market can change quickly, so to better understand how deep the levels of distress are, and what direction we see the level of distress traveling, the chart below illustrates the active level of distress (both foreclosure and short sale) by city from 90 days ago, versus today.The good news is that with the exception of Fountain Hills, Surprise, and Tempe, most areas had a slight decrease in distress, however, if you look at the overall percentage of distress, with the exception of the Northeast cities of Cave Creek, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale, distress represents more than half of the inventory, and in most cases it™s over 60%.

The bright spot is that Arizona did a good job with job creation over the past year.  In the past twelve months, approximately 22,000 jobs were created, which can help families afford homes, and we are quite fortunate to be a destination city for winter visitors who are snapping up vacation homes and investment properties at a very healthy pace.Listings Pending Sales are 12,152.  That is an increase of 292 pending sales compared to last week, which would be typical as we head in to fall months. Listings that are active with sales contingencies account for an additional 7,779 properties.Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 15,125 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS.  That is an increase of 2 listings from last week.  This represents the end of thirty consecutive weeks of decrease, which would be expected for this time of year.  
• There are 19,241 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.

In the past 30 days 8,188 homes have sold in the Phoenix metro area.    

Gloria MacKay, ABR, e-PRO, GRI, CDPE, CNE, CLHMS, REALTOR                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               CDPE Certified Distressed Property Expert                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   HAFA Certified Specialist                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Million Dollar Guild                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Keller Williams Arizona Realty                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             602-315-2402  cell                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       gloria@mackayfinehomes.com             www.mackayfinehomes.com

With the exception of the market over $2,000,000 the remainder of the market seems to be continuing move through inventory at a healthy pace.

Sales per month, for the month of August, were up almost 27% over the same time period last year, and August of 2010 was not considered to be a slow sales month.

Active inventory is down 47% from last year. Wow! Inventory is nearly half what it was last year, and notices of foreclosure are down 29% over the same time period last year.

The lower end of the market is beginning to show increases in sales and pending sales prices, which is positive for the market. This is largely fueled by the severe decreases in lender owned inventory in the lower end markets. Avondale, Maricopa, El Mirage, Young Town, Tolleson, and Tonopah all have 90% fewer bank owned listings today than they did in 2009. Anthem, Carefree, Whitman, Queen Creek, Buckeye, Phoenix, Apache Junction, Glendale, Coolidge and Goodyear all have 80% fewer bank owned listings today than they did in 2009.

Investors playing in the fix and flip world are having a very hard time purchasing properties that work within their financial models, due to the low inventory and strong demand. Even properties being auctioned at the courthouse steps are selling for more than fix and flip investors can justify in their business models.

The data isn™t indicating any negative signals, but public sentiment still is, largely in part to pieces of information, typically national statistics, promoted by the media. We will of course be keeping a watchful eye on inventory and demand as we move into the fall months, which in a typical cycle would tend to have a slower sales pace than the remainder of the year.

Listings Pending Sale are 11,860. That is a decrease of 367 pending sales compared to last week, which would be typical as we head in to fall months. Listings that are active with sales contingencies account for an additional 7,764 properties.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 15,123 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS. That is a decrease of 321 listings from last week. This represents the thirtieth consecutive week of decrease.
• There are 19,259 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.

Gloria MacKay, ABR, e-PRO, GRI, CDPE, CNE, CLHMS, REALTORCDPE Certified Distressed Property ExpertHAFA Certified SpecialistCertified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Million Dollar Guild

Keller Williams Arizona Realty

602-315-2402 mobile   480-223-1266 e- fax

gloria@mackayfinehomes.comwww.mackayfinehomes.com  

That the diagram below, charting the absorption rate by price range, is a strong indicator of just how far we™ve come.   We™ve known for some time that the price ranges in the lower end of the pricing spectrum were being quickly snatched by investors, often paying cash, and that for several year, 94% of the market was selling under $400,000, which is still true, however, months of supply of inventory doesn™t hit double digits until you get to the $900,000 price range.

 Overall absorption, valley wide is 31.6%
Listings Pending Sales are up this week, which is somewhat surprising for this time of year, 12,014.  That is an increase of 167 pending sales compared to last week. Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 7,814 properties.
 
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 15,695 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS.  That is a decrease of 101 listings from last week.  This represents the twenty-eighth consecutive week of decrease, that™s nearly 7 consecutive months.  
• There are 19,853 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.

Gloria MacKay, ABR, e-PRO, GRI, CDPE, CNE, CLHMS, REALTOR ®

CDPE Certified Distressed Property Expert

HAFA Certified Specialist

Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Million Dollar Guild

Keller Williams Arizona Realty

602-315-2402 mobile 480-223-1266 e- fax

gloria@mackayfinehomes.com www.mackayfinehomes.com

FORECLOSURE RESOURCE SITE: WWW.MACKAYSCOTTSDALEPROPERTIES.COM

Greetings!

I find the Phoenix Area real estate market very fascinating each week when I review the statistics and trends.  Supply has been falling dramatically, and we have been in a seller™s market for several months, and yet the level of distress is continuing to hold prices down.

However, the number of foreclosures have decreased significantly, so the more quickly we can move through the short sale inventory, the better.Typically, a balanced market is 5.5 months supply.    

According to the MLS data, the only market in the Phoenix metro area that is a buyer™s market is Paradise Valley, and even so, that™s not by much.  Fountain Hills is teetering on a balanced market, and Scottsdale and Cave Creek have dropped their inventories into a seller™s market.    

Glendale continues to be on fire with a 1.9 month supply of inventory.  Wow.The chart below illustrates how much inventory has decreased in each major city in the Phoenix Metro Area, from the same time period last year.    

It™s interesting to observe that the Northeast Phoenix cities of Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Cave Creek, which were the last to begin seeing signs of recovery, have had the most dramatic decreases in total inventory over the past twelve months.

Listings Pending Sales are still strong with a total of 12,181.  That is a decrease of just 302 pending sales compared to last week, which is strong considering that we typically see a greater decline in pending inventory in the latter weeks of July.  Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 7,731 properties.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 16,555 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS.  That is a decrease of 116 listings from last week.  This represents the twenty-fifth consecutive week of decrease.  
• There are 20,792 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.

As always, I am available to answer your questions or provide specific information, please feel free to contact me anytime.  

Gloria MacKay, ABR, e-PRO, GRI, CDPE, CNE, CLHMS, REALTOR ®

CDPE Certified Distressed Property Expert

HAFA Certified Specialist

Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Million Dollar Guild

Keller Williams Arizona Realty

602-315-2402 mobile 480-223-1266 e- fax

gloria@mackayfinehomes.com www.mackayfinehomes.com

FORECLOSURE RESOURCE SITE: WWW.MACKAYSCOTTSDALEPROPERTIES.COM

Greetings!For Home Buyers¦please note the loan limit changes below:FHA conforming loan rates are about to dramatically decrease.    

Currently, the maximum FHA conforming loan limit is $346,250.  As of October 1^st, the maximum FHA conforming loan limit will be reduced to $271,050.

What does this mean?    

This means that buyers looking in the price range between $272,000 and $346,000 who need to, or would like to, take advantage of requiring only 3.5% down payment, as opposed 10% or 20% with conventional financing need to buy NOW!

Buyers also need to know that Valley wide, in the price ranges between $272,000 and $346,000, we are in a seller™s market with an average of 4.2 months of inventory (a balanced market would be considered 5.5 months of supply).  Depending on the price and location of a home, buyers may need to be aggressive with their offers.

Listings Pending Sales are still strong with a total of 12,483.  That is an increase of 195 pending sales compared to last week.  Listings that are active with contingencies (AWC) account for an additional 7,801 properties.   (These are mostly attributed to short sales awaiting bank approval on the current offers presented to the banks.)

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 16,6711 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS.  That is a decrease of 310 listings from last week.  This represents the twenty-fourth consecutive week of decrease.  
• There are 20,928 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.

Let me know how I can help you or any friend or family pursue your Real Estate Dreams!

Gloria MacKay, ABR, e-PRO, GRI, CDPE, CNE, CLHMS, REALTOR ®

CDPE Certified Distressed Property Expert

HAFA Certified Specialist

Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Million Dollar Guild

Keller Williams Arizona Realty

602-315-2402 mobile 480-223-1266 e- fax

gloria@mackayfinehomes.com www.mackayfinehomes.com

FORECLOSURE RESOURCE SITE: WWW.MACKAYSCOTTSDALEPROPERTIES.COM

Greetings!  IT™S FINALLY HAPPENED!!!  It cannot be ignored, any more!

For weeks I have been wondering why the media is not paying attention to what is happening in our market.  Finally, Catherine Reagor, a reporter for the Arizona Republic real estate section, who has had absolutely nothing positive to say about the Phoenix Real Estate Market for the past several years, published an article today titled œPhoenix Area Market Gaining Ground.  Wow, is she finally paying attention to the data?

In case you haven™t heard the news yet, June was a record setting month for the Phoenix market.  On the single day of June 30^th,  2,216 homes closed escrow, which is a 57% increase over the previous record for single day closings, which was on June 30^th of 2004!

The month of June itself also set a record with a total of 11,141 closings.  That even beats the 10,216 closings that took place during the peak of the market in June of 2005.

Pending sales for the month of July are up 16.1% from the same time in 2010.    

Active listings are down 30% over the same time period last year!  Perhaps even more exciting, is that the rumored œshadow inventory of foreclosures has been declining since November of 2010, and foreclosure inventory is down 27% below this same time period last year.

Listings Pending Sales are still strong with a total of 12,288.  That is an increase of 48 pending sales compared to last week.  Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 7,661 properties.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 16,981 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS.  That is a decrease of 136 listings from last week.  We are on the horizon of the record low inventory levels that fueled the market in 2005, and this represents the twenty-third consecutive week of decrease.  
• There are 21,275 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.

Have a wonderful weekend, stay cool, and as always, feel free to contact me for your Real Estate needs, I am always happy to answer any questions you may have.With inventory down, this is a fantastic opportunity for home selling!

Gloria MacKay, ABR, e-PRO, GRI, CDPE, CNE, CLHMS, REALTOR ®

CDPE Certified Distressed Property Expert

HAFA Certified Specialist

Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Million Dollar Guild

Keller Williams Arizona Realty

602-315-2402 mobile   480-223-1266 e- fax

gloria@mackayfinehomes.com www.mackayfinehomes.com

FORECLOSURE RESOURCE SITE: WWW.MACKAYSCOTTSDALEPROPERTIES.COM

Greetings and Happy 235th Birthday America!

It has been eight weeks since we™ve focused on absorption by municipality.  The percentage of absorption would be calculated by the total level of actively available inventory, versus the number of homes going into escrow and becoming pending sales, or how quickly demand is removing supply from the market.

With the exception of Anthem, each city has seen an increase in absorption over the past eight weeks.  Based on the typical seasonal patterns, I would anticipate that the next eight week snap shot for absorption should show a slight slowing trend.  

I find the dramatic slowing in absorption in Anthem over an eight week period interesting, although it could be explained by the dramatic decrease in foreclosure inventory, currently at 9%, which with the exception of the Sun City retirement communities, is the lowest foreclosure inventory by city in the Valley.

Even more interesting is that most cities showed GRADUAL increases, but take special note of Ahwatukee, Cave Creek, Glendale, Peoria, and Tempe!  My thought would be that the strong increases in those areas could be explained by families eager to relocate and be settled by the time that the new school year begins?

It is important that buyers understand what is happening with absorption by city and price range so that they can anticipate what to expect when making an offer (will they be competing with multiple offers, etc).  It™s also important that sellers understand absorption in relationship to pricing their home.

Listings Pending Sale are still strong with a total of 12,240.  That is a decrease of 1,385 pending listings compared to last week, which would be seasonally anticipated, but is the largest decline in pending inventory in several months.  Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 7366 properties.

Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:

• There are 17,117 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS.  That is a decrease of 627 listings from last week.  The decrease has slowed, however this represents the twenty-second consecutive week of decrease.  
• There are 21,487 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.

Independence Day is a Day of Celebration and Remembrance.   Celebrate the freedoms we have fought for and remember those who sacrificed to make America all it is today!Happy 4^th of July and have a safe and wonderful weekend with family and friends!  Sincerely,

Gloria MacKay, ABR, e-PRO, GRI, CDPE, CNE, CLHMS, REALTOR ®

CDPE Certified Distressed Property Expert

HAFA Certified Specialist

Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Million Dollar Guild

Keller Williams Arizona Realty

602-315-2402 mobile   480-223-1266 e- fax

gloria@mackayfinehomes.com www.mackayfinehomes.com

FORECLOSURE RESOURCE SITE: WWW.MACKAYSCOTTSDALEPROPERTIES.COM